In 2026 there are two trends that I think threaten people’s sense of identity. I mean there’s a lot of bad trends in 2026, so I need to be clear. If you’re reading this in another decade, I hope things are less terrible.
The trends specifically are AI and Prediction Markets (ie gambling). Both trends are destructive. AI is over-rated, over-exposed use of statistical tools to assemble language that overshadows actual useful technology. Prediction Markets are just gambling, only gambling on anything, and gambling has gotten pretty terrible with Sports Betting. They’re wrecking the economy, used to funnel money to the grotesquely rich, and so on – but also they destroy identity by destroying personhood.
Let’s take a look at AI. AI is pitched as a replacement for not just people but for thinking. You can get rid of workers and then they don’t do what they do, what they do as part of their lives and careers. You also can not need to know anything, just prompt an AI and then get Slop you can pass off as something valuable. AI is about degrading knowledge and degrading thought.
You have to learn something, do something, make something to achieve results. AI replaces that, AI means you’re nothing but a prompt-enterer at best. AI replaces people with something that can’t truly do their job as it’s not about being a kind of person. It also replaces being the kind of person that knows and does things with typing a prompt.
AI removes identity from the equation. AI is about not being anything, just weak connective tissue between pretend intelligence. You’re not a person, you’re not anyone.
The Prediction Markets are about bets, periods. There might be some skill involved, but the core skill is to be able to make bets and predict things. That kind of skill isn’t necessarily being used anywhere else, just to try to get a cash payout. Also some people are just placing bets and seeing whatever happens.
And that’s not including market manipulation, which is an important subject as of this writing. What if you’re placing bets then just manipulating what goes on – playing on insider information, making deals, threatening people? Are you building anything? Making anything? Being anyone?
It’s all odds and odds manipulation. There’s no one home, just desires for payoffs. Nothing is coming of it. No one is being anything, just gut bacteria in the odds market.
AI and Prediction Markets are all about poking buttons, statistics, odds, and not building skills, or relations, or learning things that make you someone. It’s a world of emptiness and voidness. It’s techno-economic trends that dehumanize people in many ways.
Do I have any solutions? Well, yes, be skeptical of these things and work to build yourself and others as people – folks with knowledge and skills, and roles, and citizenship. Be sure to keep people skeptical and aware.
But also as I expect both of these to go very wrong, you can also promote regulation, limitations, community opposition, and of course witty “I told you so’s”.