Technology

But What If We’re No One?

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In 2026 there are two trends that I think threaten people’s sense of identity. I mean there’s a lot of bad trends in 2026, so I need to be clear. If you’re reading this in another decade, I hope things are less terrible.

The trends specifically are AI and Prediction Markets (ie gambling). Both trends are destructive. AI is over-rated, over-exposed use of statistical tools to assemble language that overshadows actual useful technology. Prediction Markets are just gambling, only gambling on anything, and gambling has gotten pretty terrible with Sports Betting. They’re wrecking the economy, used to funnel money to the grotesquely rich, and so on – but also they destroy identity by destroying personhood.

Let’s take a look at AI. AI is pitched as a replacement for not just people but for thinking. You can get rid of workers and then they don’t do what they do, what they do as part of their lives and careers. You also can not need to know anything, just prompt an AI and then get Slop you can pass off as something valuable. AI is about degrading knowledge and degrading thought.

You have to learn something, do something, make something to achieve results. AI replaces that, AI means you’re nothing but a prompt-enterer at best. AI replaces people with something that can’t truly do their job as it’s not about being a kind of person. It also replaces being the kind of person that knows and does things with typing a prompt.

AI removes identity from the equation. AI is about not being anything, just weak connective tissue between pretend intelligence. You’re not a person, you’re not anyone.

The Prediction Markets are about bets, periods. There might be some skill involved, but the core skill is to be able to make bets and predict things. That kind of skill isn’t necessarily being used anywhere else, just to try to get a cash payout. Also some people are just placing bets and seeing whatever happens.

And that’s not including market manipulation, which is an important subject as of this writing. What if you’re placing bets then just manipulating what goes on – playing on insider information, making deals, threatening people? Are you building anything? Making anything? Being anyone?

It’s all odds and odds manipulation. There’s no one home, just desires for payoffs. Nothing is coming of it. No one is being anything, just gut bacteria in the odds market.

AI and Prediction Markets are all about poking buttons, statistics, odds, and not building skills, or relations, or learning things that make you someone. It’s a world of emptiness and voidness. It’s techno-economic trends that dehumanize people in many ways.

Do I have any solutions? Well, yes, be skeptical of these things and work to build yourself and others as people – folks with knowledge and skills, and roles, and citizenship. Be sure to keep people skeptical and aware.

But also as I expect both of these to go very wrong, you can also promote regulation, limitations, community opposition, and of course witty “I told you so’s”.

–Xenofact

The Creeping Stupid

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I recently read an article in Rolling Stone on a “Spiral Cult” that has spun up around AI, and of course message boards are part of it. There’s talk of emergence intelligence, resonance, and lots and lots of spiral imagery. That’s probably due to the use of spirals in our own language and in nature, giving Junji Ito Uzumai vibe.

Then again, to make it sadder, the fame of his horror story might be part of the AI inclinations. That’s where we are now, trying to figure out if horror manga seeded a real cult via AI.

As I read the article, I felt a sense of unease. We were clearly seeing some people in the throws of AI psychosis. There were quotes from posts where language seemed “off,” where was I was reading wasn’t quite right. The more I read the more I experienced an actual horror at what was going on, reminding me of weird fiction tales of strange cults and otherworldly dread.

Only I was experiencing reading this about people posting on Reddit. About something that was clearly bullshit. Yet there was that dread.

That’s when I realized what it was. I was experiencing the equivalent of exploring a cave adorned with cultic symbols or a rotting old mansion with an otherworldly reputation, and hearing strange noises. When I discover the source of the noises it’s not something terrifying from beyond, but because someone left the TV on turned to a dubstep concert.

The trappings of horrific things from beyond was there, but the cause was stupid.

What I was experiencing in the end was a kind of Uncanny Valley effect. Yes this looked like a cult, yes this hinted and strange and maybe even sinister forces, but it was an act. There was no there in there, just an advanced version of Clippy and people prompting it. The very foolishness, the very emptiness, the sense of nothing at home was what was getting to me.

It’s the danger not of some dark power from the fringes of space and time, it’s the danger of people being foolish in very dangerous ways. It was just cosplaying something from a horror film.

But that’s a reminder of the horror of the situation. We are seeing people lose their minds, lost in language mazes and pop-culture narratives. We don’t have an extradimensional horror or strange being to blame, we have but ourselves. We get the blame.

Perhaps that’s the real horror. We don’t even have sinister forces to blame.

–Xenofact

You Think We’d Kind Of Be Used To It

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So as I write this in 2025, a predicted Rapture just didn’t happen. I know, failed Raptures have been predicted ever since a few people made up the idea in the 1830s. But this Rapture, it felt different, more present in the media, more widespread, more manic. I honestly think the internet part of the phenomena.

Suddenly religious and cultural commentators I followed, podcasts I listened to, and so on were talking people getting ready for the Rapture. Of course that quickly turned into people disappointed the Rapture didn’t happen. It just all happened so fast it was a crash course in crashing eschatology that was pretty widespread.

By the time you read this who knows how many other failed Raptures will have happened. Maybe we can get a Rapture of the Month club going.

I wondered just how could people fall for this again? The failed Rapture prediction is a fixture of Christian history, a long-running cautionary tale that people still need to be cautioned against. I mean the weird 2012 “prophecies” didn’t happen, assorted failed predictions have dotted the American cultural landscape for decades, and don’t we go through this every few years?

After some analysis while writing this column (which mutated from its original intent as I wrote it) is that The Rapture predictions aren’t about the Rapture – and today’s technology has hit a point that changes how and why information spread.

Once you poke around history – and watch the most recent Not-Rapture – it becomes very apparent how much psychology is involved. A person or people under crisis. A time of change or turmoil in history. Historical happenings raising questions that lead people to want simple answers. Personal issues and large-scale social and economic issues leading people to want an out.

The Rapture isn’t a coming event, it’s a sign something’s gone on, that people are troubled or seeking something. It’s the echo of a scream shouted into a world that’s not the way people wanted. There was a desperation I hadn’t seen before.

However, as I watched this spread across the Internet, it’s also a reminder of how our social media provides a vector for ideas to spread. Long gone are the days of books of prophecy and media figures preaching The Rapture. A single idea can spread from person to person, person to crowd, crowd to crowd in ways that weren’t imaginable 30 years ago.

Moreso, there are people whos goal is to be an Influencer – even if they call it something else. So many of us are taught to crave social media hits and a widespread audience, and the benefits that entails. I think for many this desire is unconscious or semi-conscious.

The Rapture is a great way to get attention, pure Influencer bait.

Combine troubled times and Influencer Brain and you’ve got a great recipe for the latest Rapture story to spread to people’s brains. Even if there are skeptical people, skepticism isn’t spreading while the latest Influencer Idea is. They network around any skeptics.

What do we do with that? I have no idea. But it’s a reminder any communications strategy we may need to address such viral ideas is going to have to take motivation into mind as well as the technology that boosts it.

Because we’ll go through this again soon enough.

–Xenofact